August sell-offs spark ‘September caution’, analysts eye tier-1 banks for market relief 

Analysts at CardinalStone expect investor sentiment to stay cautious in September 2025, following the sell-offs that began in August and have continued into the new month.

This outlook was shared in their latest monthly equity research update titled “Broad-based Gains in Global Equities; NGX ASI Stalls.” 

According to the analysts, profit-taking in stocks that rallied up to early August dragged the broader index lower, a trend that persisted into early September.

• The Nigerian stock market managed to close August slightly positive at 0.31%, after a strong start in early August gave way to weakness in the second half, with the index losing more than 3,500 points in the fourth week.

Looking ahead, the analysts noted that upcoming earnings releases and interim dividend declarations from tier-1 banks could provide a much-needed cushion in September.

They added that if investors respond positively to these results, it may help lift sentiment and stabilize overall market performance.

Banking sector pullback 

The NGX Banking Index, which has been a strong performer this year, opened in 2025 at 1,084.5 and ended January with a 9.76% gain.

It eased slightly in February and March, leaving the sector with a Q1 performance of 6.96%.

Although the second quarter began with a minor dip in April, bullish momentum returned in May and strengthened in June, pushing H1 performance to 18%.

• July has been the standout month so far in the second half, with the sector gaining 25.8% to 1,610.5.

However, this rally lost steam in mid-August, and the pullback has been extended into early September.

• FUGAZ stocks were key drivers of the May gains, following their Q1 2025 results, which likely boosted investor confidence.

• However, the index has since pulled back in Q3 and is now testing a support level, around 1,500.

So far, only First HoldCo has released its Q2 results, and the market is likely watching the remaining FUGAZ banks for clues.

First HoldCo performance 

First HoldCo Plc released its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, reporting a pretax profit of N169.6 billion.

While this is down 4.58% from the same period last year, it remains a solid performance, bringing the group’s half-year pretax profit to N356.1 billion.

The results were supported by a strong rise in interest income, which jumped 61.92% to N812.1 billion in Q2 from N501.5 billion a year earlier, pushing half-year interest income to N1.4 trillion.

• Most of this came from loans and advances (N910.3 billion), followed by investment securities (N445.7 billion) and loans to banks (N81.2 billion).

The group also saw higher net fee and commission income, which rose to N74.5 billion from N58.4 billion in Q2 2024.

A notable improvement came from foreign exchange losses, which dropped sharply from N66.4 billion to just N6.9 billion.