Pre-election Liquidity, Banking, ICT To Drive Equities Market In 2026

Equities market stakeholders have said that Nigeria’s stock market is expected to maintain a positive bias in 2026, driven by liquidity and resilient sectors such as banking and Information Communication Technology (ICT).

They also disclosed that the ongoing macro-reform-led rebound in key sectors is expected to continue, with domestic developments around the Dangote petrochemical listing providing further support to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

Despite uneven market performance in pre-election years, analysts remain optimistic about the market’s prospects.

Analysts expected the local bourse to return 40.9 per cent in the full year 2026 in a base case scenario.

The market has opened the year 2026 on a positive note as the market capitalisation traded above N100 trillion. In the first three trading days of the year, the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index rose by 2.79 to close at 159,951.08 points on January 6, 2026, from 155,613.03 points at which it opened trading for the year on January 2, 2026. Similarly, the market capitalisation appreciated by N2.904 trillion to close at N102.28 trillion from N99.376 trillion.

It will be recalled that the market closed the year 2025 on a bullish performance, with NGX-ASI delivering a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 51.19 per cent as of December 31, 2025, while the market capitalisation achieved a yearly gain of N36.613 trillion in 2025.

The Group managing director/chief executive officer, Nigerian Exchange Group, Temi Popoola stated that “as we look ahead to 2026, NGX Group remains focused on deepening partnerships with regulators, issuers, market operators, policymakers, and the wider financial ecosystem to sustain this momentum. We are optimistic about the opportunities ahead and committed to positioning the Nigerian capital market as a key driver of economic growth and wealth creation, while advancing NGX Group’s vision as Africa’s preferred exchange hub.”

Afrinvest Limited said, “Our analysis indicates that while Nigeria’s pre-election years are typically marked by elevated liquidity, market performance remains uneven. Nevertheless, we expect a positive bias in 2026, particularly in liquid and resilient sectors such as banking and ICT, while the ongoing macro-reform-led rebound in key sectors continues. Additionally, domestic developments around the Dangote petrochemical listing should further support positive sentiments on the NGX.”

The research firm explained that “at the beginning of 2025, we had expected the NGX-ASI to gain 30.4 per cent by year-end. The benchmark index surpassed our best-case projection of 44.8 per cent.

“Following our review of the recent macroeconomic environment and market dynamics, we expect the local bourse to return 40.9 per cent in the full year 2026 in a base case scenario.”

On the stock market expectations for 2026, investment banker & stockbroker, Mr Tajudeen Olayinka, projected the stock market to maintain positive momentum, warning of the impact of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on foreign investors exiting the Nigerian stock market.

“Foreign and high-network investors are the ones driving the stock market. With the Government trying to implement the CGT policy by 2026, it will affect the market negatively. I understand discussion is ongoing on CGT and if it is suspended, it is a welcome development to the stock market. The CGT must be addressed to obstruct the stock market’s recent high returns on investment,” he said.

He noted that the tension towards the 2027 election may not affect the stock market performance following its recent fundamentals.

On his part, the MD/CEO of Globalview Capital Limited, Aruna Kebira, stated that improved liquidity due to the 2027 general election may trickle down to the stock market, expressing that the conclusion of the 2026 recapitalisation and insurance sector capitalisation would improve the stock market.

He noted that Pension Fund Administrations (PFA) contribution in the stock market is significant as foreign investors exiting the market may not have an impact.

The chief operating officer of InvestData Consulting Limited, Mr Ambrose Omordion, projected a continued impressive 2026 earnings by listed companies and investment returns to shareholders with a dividend which is expected to impact the stock market performance.

“For 2026, if we see more impressive earnings by listed companies, we expect to see more growth coming to the stock market,” he said.

He noted that new listings in 2026 and the N54.43 trillion 2026 budget are expected to trigger liquidity in the financial sector and drive the stock market.