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Mikel Arteta (left) was appointed Arsenal manager in 2019 after three years as Manchester City assistant under Pep Guardiola (right)The Premier League title race is building up to a dramatic finale as we enter the final two months of the campaign.
Arsenal extended their lead at the top to eight points by thrashing Crystal Palace 4-1 on Sunday and have 10 games left as they look to end their 19-year wait for a title.
Manchester City have a game in hand but are also still in the FA Cup and Champions League, meaning they could potentially play seven more fixtures than Arsenal.
The two teams meet in what is likely to be a pivotal match at Etihad Stadium on 26 April.
So who are favourites for the title? And who has the more favourable run-in?
BBC Sport has crunched the numbers and analysed the fixture list to try and find out…
Who do Arsenal and City have left to play?Let’s start with the fixtures.
Arsenal’s outlook is simple: they need 26 points from those 10 games to take the title, assuming City win all their remaining matches. Arsenal’s final match is at home to Wolves on 28 May.
Pep Guardiola’s City have 11 games remaining but also face a two-legged Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich and an FA Cup semi-final against Sheffield United at Wembley.
Should City win both, the FA Cup final takes place on 3 June and the Champions League semi-finals are scheduled for 9/10 and 16/17 May, before the final in Istanbul on 10 June.
Data company Nielsen’s Gracenote has worked out the percentage chance each side have of winning their remaining Premier League matches, according to its Euro Club Index formula.
Remaining fixturesArsenalWin chanceMan CityWin chanceLeeds (h) 1 April78%Liverpool (h) 1 April61%Southampton (a) 8 April71%Liverpool (a) 9 April21%Bayern Munich (h – Champions League QF) 11 AprilLeicester (h) 15 April85%West Ham (a) 16 April44%Bayern Munich (a – Champions League QF) 19 AprilSouthampton (h) 21 April79%Sheffield United (FA Cup semi-final) 22/23 AprilMan City (a) 26 April14%Arsenal (h) 26 April66%Chelsea (h) 29 April54%Fulham (a) 30 April68%Newcastle (a) 6 May37%Leeds (h) 6 May88%Potential CL semi-final 9/10 MayBrighton (h) 13 May65%Everton (a) 13 May68%Potential CL semi-final 16/17 MayNottingham Forest (a) 20 May58%Chelsea (h) 20 May70%Wolves (h) 28 May75%Brentford (a) 28 May62%West Ham (h) TBC82%Brighton (a) TBC55%Potential FA Cup final 3 JunePotential CL final 10 June’This is a genuine title race which is very difficult to call’According to Gracenote’s simulations, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have a 53% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy, while City’s chance of retaining their title is 47%.
“Despite Arsenal’s eight-point lead, it is still close to a 50/50 race because the Gunners have played a game more than Manchester City and still have to play away at three of the top six: City, Newcastle United and Liverpool,” said Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote.
“City’s toughest remaining trip in the Premier League is to Brighton next month.
“If we use probabilities from our Euro Club Index for each remaining match to calculate the expected points for Arsenal and Manchester City at the end of the season, Arsenal finish on 87 points and City on 86.
“If we partially subjectively allocate a win, draw or loss to each of the remaining fixtures led by the Euro Club Index probabilities, both teams end on 88 points. Either way, this is a genuine title race which is very difficult to call.
“The match between the two on April 26 will clearly be a key fixture in deciding the destination of the Premier League trophy.
“On the basis of an estimated 66% win chance for City according to the Euro Club Index, we have given City three points. If Arsenal avoid defeat, or even win, this will have a major impact on the title race.”
Arsenal have history on their sideNervy Arsenal fans dreaming of a first title since 2003-04 may take some comfort from the history books.
According to Opta, only three teams in the
Source: BBC Sport | Read More
