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The aviation sector has been valued at N258.9bn in the recently released rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP), highlighting a sector reeling in underperformance and struggling to remain afloat, Daily Trust can report.
The sum is the worth of the industry captured as Air Transport in the GDP data as of 2024.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had on Monday July 21, 2025 released the rebased GDP report, indicating that the economy grew by 3.13 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from the 2.27 percent recorded in the same period in 2024.
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In 2019, the rebased nominal GDP at market prices stood at N205.09 trillion, N213.64 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.
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Air transportation is an entirely dollarised industry. Aircraft acquisition, fueling, aircraft maintenance and virtually all activities in the sector are valued in dollars.
However, according to the NBS data, air transportation is valued at N258.9bn in 2024. This translates to $169.3m.
In 2023, the sector was valued at N215.6bn; N178.4bn in 2022; 145.5bn in 2021, N101.1bn in 2020 which was the year of the pandemic and N222.4bn in 2019.
Daily Trust reports that going by the rate of exchange in 2019 which was around N306 to one dollar, aviation in dollar term stood at around $725.4m.
2020 was a year of shutdown for aviation due to COVID-19 pandemic which affected air travel especially.
According to analysts, aviation recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was hampered by the naira devaluation and the worsening inflationary pressures which reduced the number of people flying.
A sector in recession?
According to an analysis by Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), three sectors underperformed in the rebased GDP.
The analysts said three sectors which include air transport, textiles, and coal mining are in recession.
The CPPE said, “Top-performing sectors included financial services [15.3%], oil refining [11.51%], transportation [14.08], ICT [7.4%], and metal ores [25%].
“The following sectors contracted: Livestock [-16.7%], fishing [-0.21%], Textiles [-1.63], Coal Mining [-22.3%], Quarry & Minerals [-21.55%], Plastics and Rubber [-3.2%], Iron & Steel [-0.35%], Air Transport [-0.81%].
Sectors in recession include air transport, textiles, and coal mining. This follows their consistent contraction over the past few quarters.
With increasing prices of tickets, the passenger numbers have dropped significantly according to airline operators.
Acting Managing Director of Ibom Air, George Uriesi recently raised an alarm over depleting passenger figures, saying this is a major cause for concern.
The Ibom Air boss confirmed that traffic has been dwindling since 2022, saying the situation is getting worse and efforts must be made to attract more passengers to fly.
Passenger traffic declining – Operators
“We are down by 27% from 2024. We are in trouble, we have to find a way to get people flying again,” he said.
The Airline operator said airports must work with airlines to survive, saying, “In Aviation ecosystem, the driver is the airline. Nobody will earn kobo if airlines do not fly. Everybody talks about money because airlines are flying.”
Chief Executive Officer of Aero Contractors, Capt. Ado Sanusi in a chat with our correspondent said, “The passenger traffic has been declining in Nigeria. It’s been declining and we know the reason for the decline of the passenger traffic. I have mentioned it in several interviews. There are factors affecting the decline in passenger traffic. The movement of passengers reflects the economic activities of any country. If the economic activities of the country have slowed down, the movement will slow down.”
‘Activities picking up’
Sanusi however believes the economy is picking up gradually and said the federal government must work with the airlines to streamline the taxes.
“The economy is going into the right direction. But the problem, or the challenge that we are faced with is the taxations that are a bit high and so for the tickets. That makes the tickets a bit high in so many ways, meaning that the people that are buying tickets are very few in Nigeria.”
Another aviation stakeholder blamed the underperformance of the sector on the depletion of disposable income of Nigerians.
“There is no disposable income again. People are really tightening their belts now. To travel by air is now a luxury more or less,” he said.
However, President of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), Yinka Folami however disagreed that the aviation sector is in a recession.
“From my experience and what I observe, there is nothing that points to that significant drop so much as classified as a recession. Nothing points that to me. IATA figures are bouncing back. Load factor is reasonably high,” he said.
Naira devaluation, inflation slowed down recovery from COVID-19 – Expert
Aviation analyst and General Secretary of Aviation Roundtable and Safety Initiative, Mr. Olumide Ohunayo in a chat with Daily Trust said the sector was recovering well from the shutdown occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic until the progress was slowed by naira devaluation.
From about N300 to a dollar in 2019, the local currency now exchanges for N1,534 as of yesterday.
Ohunayo said, “Air Transport was the sector that was most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It was predicted that it would take three years for air transport to get back to the pre-COVID era. I think that prediction has only been reverted by two or three countries that have got back to the 2019 era.
“In our own case as we are about recovering, there came the paucity of funds most especially the dollar which is the main currency of operation in the industry. That affected the capacity and because it affected the capacity, the airlines did not post a lot, they cancelled some routes and passengers were looking at options.
“The dollar-to-naira ticket fare skyrocketed. And due to the skyrocketing, passengers also abandoned air transportation. The airlines do not have the kind of capacity they had in the beginning, that reduced and this affected frequency and routes and also affected available capacity in the market.
“The rate of dollar to naira that skyrocketed along with the inflation that followed it also made tickets a bit high for passengers.
“Again, the disposable income that was there for Nigerians before was lowered considerably by inflation. So people are not travelling for things that are not important anymore. So it must be extremely important for people to travel.
“With all these conditions, it was the air transport that suffered the most because it is a luxurious travel and it is very expensive.
“Again remember they also clamped down on private jets. Remember as of 2019, we had more private jets than even scheduled flights. With the clamp down on private jet operations and asking them to regularize their papers, that also took some aircraft out of the country while some were grounded and that also affected aviation contribution to the economy.”
Expert seeks targeted support for underperforming sector
The Director/CEO of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf called for targeted support for Underperforming Sectors.
“Special attention is needed for sectors in recession, those that contracted, and those experiencing slow growth. Addressing structural challenges, improving access to finance, tackling insecurity and fostering innovation will be critical to stimulating recovery and growth,” he said.
Source: DailyTrust | Continue to Full Story…
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