AfriPulse
THE prospects are frightening if the early indications are true that the Presidency is primed to turn its attention to Nigeria’s national oil assets as part of its drive for increased revenue. The tentative framework of the plot of the regime which is currently being debated in not too hushed tones among industry players should be of concern to all Nigerians. Unless something gives, and quickly too, the possible wasting, I am loath to say plundering, of a critical section of that industry could be likened to the infamous and historic activities elsewhere in the world of pirates in the 17th and 18th centuries. But there’s a difference here. The buccaneers and pirates of the gone by centuries virtually personally sent themselves on missions to the high seas to plunder. But in this case, those who may be mandated to sell off Nigeria’s oil assets may claim, and perhaps rightly so, that they are fulfilling their campaign promises of 2023. They could hide under the cover of being promise keepers.
It might be helpful to recount how some pirates operated in the past centuries without suggesting that our present crop of rulers also operate in the same way. Today’s pirates in the oceans operate in about the same manner but not necessarily with equal brazenness, temerity, and blood-cuddling brutality. An online entry recorded that “buccaneers were pirates or privateers who operated in the Caribbean Sea during the 17th and 18th centuries. They were known for their bravery, cunning, and sometimes brutal tactics”. It’s ironic that our current rulers are famous or notorious, depending on which side you are standing, for their courage, for instance, in their sudden decision to remove subsidy on petrol, and generally on energy, and their bravery in massively devaluing the national currency, the Naira, all in one fell swoop. And all within two months of assumption of office in 2023.
Continuing, the online record identified some famous buccaneers to include a Welshman, Henry Morgan, who raided Spanish colonies and ships in the Caribbean; an English pirate who was simply known as Blackbeard. He was said to have blockaded the port of Charleston, South Carolina, in the United States of America. He derived his name from his long black beard, and he was fearless in battle. Calico Jack Rackham was yet another English pirate who also operated in the Caribbean. He was famous for having two fearsome female crew members as accomplices, Anne Bonny and Mary Read, who disguised themselves as men to join in the art of plundering merchant ships and sundry seafarers.
For good or for bad, “buccaneers played a significant role in shaping the history of piracy and the Caribbean region”, the online report stated. Their exploits captured the imagination of peoples around the world, and inspired “countless books, movies, and other works of fiction”. In like manner, the bravery and the courage as well as the punishing economic reform agenda of our country’s extant regime has captured the imagination of the citizens. And also dazed them probably to stupor. And surrender. As we stated earlier, the buccaneers of old were unelected and so their actions could be deemed to be illegal and criminal. But our rulers can lay claim to legitimacy on account of the fact that the law declared that they were lawfully elected to their present political offices. So their actions in the wake of their mandate could also be described not to be criminal. Nor illegal.
Meanwhile, we still have about four months until the commencement of the recently comprehensively reviewed tax laws, but some of its provisions have set off alarm bells nationwide. Individuals are apprehensive, fearing that the provisions will make them poorer in spite of the assurances to the contrary by the clearly malicious contrarian postulations of the government. Some industry operators are grumbling loudly that their operations would be crippled by the proposed reintroduction of hitherto suspended taxes in the new dispensation. The aviation sector is one such example of players who fear the worst of the looming tax dispensation. Thus far the administration appears unperturbed. All it sees are multiple streams of revenues for its own purposes which includes a proclivity to profligacy. It is behaving like a carpenter armed with a hammer and a nail who regards everything in front of him as wood.
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There’s no doubt that the primary motivation for the removal of petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, was to gather more money into the coffers of the federal government. The same accounted for the devaluation of the Naira about the same time. There appears to be no other substantive reason for the ongoing quest for cost-reflective pricing of other areas of energy [electricity inclusive]. The tragedy, so far, is that the increased revenues have not positively impacted the lives of the people. The tiers of government have experienced increased revenue, though it could actually be an illusion of money, but the poverty afflicting our citizens is not abating. Last year or so, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that over 133 million Nigerians suffer from multidimensional poverty. And a little over one month ago, a ranking federal government official said publicly that about 180 million Nigerians were not sure where their next meal would come from. There’s a likelihood that the number has risen. Is it not instructive that in the many recent claims of economic wins, this administration has never mentioned that it has lifted any Nigerian out of poverty in the more than two years it has been in office. For a country such as ours, which has consecutively been the poverty capital of the world since 2019, lifting citizens out of poverty should be a standard measure for the success or otherwise of economic policies.
When it comes to money this regime is insatiable. It frequently issues both Naira and Dollar-denominated bonds and treasury bills. It offers, sometimes unreasonable interest rates, which accounts for the rush to buy by foreign portfolio investors [hot money mongers], creating the illusion of increased foreign Investments. The regime knows that in contrast to foreign direct investment [FDI], portfolio investors are largely unreliable and could prove to be elevated risks to the stability of the economy. They could bail out through massive sell off at the drop of a hat. History is replete with the experiences of economies such as Nigeria’s that had been adversely hit by portfolio investors who cut and run at the first sign of trouble. They have their usefulness but they are a clear and present danger to our economy today. In spite of claims by our current managers of our national economy that we are turning the bend, FDI has remained elusive and seemingly unattainable. To be sure, FDI crashed by a whopping 70% in the first quarter of 2025 when compared with the last quarter of 2024. What this also means is that the prevailing stability in the value of the Naira against other currencies is at best tenuous, fragile, and uncertain.
Tajudeen Abbas is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. He is a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] political party. He represents Zaria constituency of Kaduna state. Last week he spoke on the frightening status of the country’s external indebtedness, in the wake of the ongoing borrowings. Within 24 hours he recanted. He must have been reminded that he was chewing more than he can swallow by indicting his real employer, the man in the Villa. In the nature of our democracy, any man or woman who holds any elected office of significance does so because of, and at the pleasure of, the president. But since Abbas spoke the truth based on documents in the public domain, we will use the alarm he mistakenly triggered to justify this government’s insatiable appetite for loans and mindless borrowings.
On the debt question Speaker Abbas said categorically that the government in which he is a ranking member has broken the law. The law stipulated that the debt-to-GDP ratio should not exceed 40%. It currently stands at 52%. And it is projected to climb to 60% by next year. As at the first quarter of this year, the country’s total public debt was approximately N149.39 trillion which was the equivalent of $97 billion. Before he backtracked on his position on the ballooning debt which is a threat to fiscal sustainability, Abbas had emphasized the urgent need for stronger oversight [supposedly by the national assembly], transparent borrowing practices, and then ensuring tangible and verifiable economic and social returns on borrowed funds. It will be fair to say that if the returns have been obvious, Abbas would not have alluded to them.
. To be concluded next week with a foray into the prospective designs of this regime on our national oil assets, and why Nigerians should be worried, not just concerned.
AUTHOR: UGO ONUOHA
Articles published in our Graffiti section are strictly the opinion of the writers and do not represent the views of Ripples Nigeria or its editorial stand.
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