This Champions League last-16 tie is still in the balance, although Bayern Munich have both aggregate and home advantage.
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Bayern Munich vs PSG predictions
In the end, Bayern Munich were perhaps a little fortunate to beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the first leg of this last-16 tie.
The Bundesliga champions dominated for the first hour at the Parc des Princes and deservedly took the lead through Kingsley Coman, a graduate of PSG’s academy.
But the home team came on strong in the last 30 months, fuelled by the introduction of Kylian Mbappe from the substitutes’ bench.
Mbappe had a late goal chalked off for offside, while PSG created other chances to draw level in front of their own fans.
Bayern went from being in full control to looking rattled, as Mbappe almost single-handedly changed the dynamic of the game.
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PSG are by no means out of this tie. They may actually relish the unusual position of being underdogs, with few expecting them to advance to the quarter-finals.
But while Bayern have been far from perfect since the World Cup, their performances in the last few weeks have been much improved after some poor results in January.
Julian Nagelsmann’s men do not lose many games at the Allianz Arena and PSG will be up against it on Wednesday.
Needless to say, if the French outfit do manage to knock Bayern out of the Champions League, it will go down as one of their greatest nights of all time in European competition.
Our expert betting tips for Bayern Munich vs PSG.
Bayern Munich vs PSG betting tips
PSG will need a complete performance to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg, with Bayern Munich in pole position to advance.
Bayern Munich to win – 4/5 (Spreadex)
Bayern Munich do not necessarily need to come out on top on Wednesday, but there is no question of them doing anything other than going for the win.
Indeed, in circumstances like this it is usually riskier to play for a draw. That strategy leaves very little margin for error, and it can be difficult for teams to completely flip their mindset if they suddenly need a goal.
Neymar will miss out for PSG, but that might not be a bad thing.
The Brazil international is a phenomenal footballer, but the Ligue 1 champions have often struggled on big European nights when fielding a front three of Neymar, Mbappe and Lionel Messi.
This is the type of game where PSG’s attackers will need to put in a shift without the ball. None of that trio does that part of the game particularly well, so the absence of one of them could actually give Christophe Galtier’s side a better balance.
Yet Bayern have a formidable record on home turf in the Champions League. They have won 15 of their last 17 matches at the Allianz Arena in this competition.
Their sole defeat in that time was a 3-2 defeat by PSG in 2021, but a repeat is unlikely this time around.
Bayern are back in form and they should prove too strong for a team that has continually fallen short on the continental stage.
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Over 3.5 goals – Evens (Spreadex)
It is fair to say that both of these teams know where the goal is.
Bayern have found the back of the net 104 times in their 34 matches in all competitions this term. That works out as a remarkable 3.06 per game.
PSG have not been quite as prolific, but a return of 97 goals in 37 outings – an average of 2.62 per game – is not to be sniffed at.
Of course, that does not necessarily mean this match will be high-scoring. The first leg featured just one goal and, in terms of clear-cut chances, was pretty uneventful in the first half in particular.
The situation has changed now, however. For one, 0-0 on the night is no longer a neutral scoreline. An aggregate deficit will compel PSG to be bolder going forward, even if that is via a counter-attacking approach.
As for Bayern, they are now playing at home. Nagelsmann is an attack-minded manager and there is little doubt that he will instruct his team to play on the front foot on Wednesday, when they will be roared forward by a partisan crowd.
We could be in store for an entertaining encounter.
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Bayern Munich to score in both halves – 6/5 (Spreadex)
When Union Berlin visited the Allianz Arena just over a week ago, many thought the unlikely Bundesliga title challengers would frustrate the defending champions.
Union have a well-earned reputation for being awkward, stubborn opponents, but Bayern simply blew them away.
The visitors to Munich could not live with the intensity and attacking intent of Nagelsmann’s charges, who ran out 3-0 winners.
We should expect something similar on Wednesday. PSG are only occasionally put under sustained pressure in Ligue 1, and a fast-paced Bayern performance could be too much for them.
The German side have scored in both halves in 21 of their 34 games this season. If they are able to find the back of the net in the first half this week, few would bet against them doing so again after the break.
This looks set to be another painful night in the Champions League for PSG, with Bayern well placed to reach the quarter-finals.
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How to watch Bayern Munich vs PSG
Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany.Date and time: Wednesday 8 March 2023, 8pm.How to watch: BT Sport 2.
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